I
don't know if Forbes Burnham would have done what Bharrat Jagdeo
did during the great floods of 2005. I consistently referred to
our first natural disaster as “the great floods”,
emphasizing the plural. There were two types of floods; the one
that came and inundated Georgetown and other parts of Region
Four and selected sites in Region Three. The rains and the
blocked drains were the causes.
While the
waters from the first floods began receding, the second flood
came and cemented itself with the first flood along the lower
East Coast from Subryanville to Enmore. This was due to either a
conservancy breach, or the official version of an overtopping of
the conservancy.
Many
persons have whispered to this writer that GUYSUCO
had released waters into the villages to save its crops. No one
from the government or GUYSUCO has acknowledged this.
The rumour
is that the government avoids an official inquiry because
farmers may testify to this allegation against GUYSUCO. One of
the richest and most prominent East Coast Demerara businessmen
told me that he accepts the blame story being leveled against
GUYSUCO.
In
fairness to the sugar company, and the state, they have denied
any such wrong-doing.
The second
flood lasted for over a month. One can then classify the natural
disaster at the beginning of this year as the great floods of
2005. But let's get back to a comparison of Burnham and Jagdeo
in a natural disaster. How Burnham would have reacted is
difficult to say since there are no records to judge him by. But
Burnham was a mercurial, protean character unlike all other
Guyanese presidents.
Unpredictable
by nature, Burnham might have stayed at home in Belfield and
direct his foot soldiers to get rid of the flood waters then
appear on the balcony of the Bank of Guyana to announce the
state of the State's response to the disaster. Or one might just
have seen Burnham, with boots longer than Nancy Sinatra's going
into the water and directing traffic himself.
Because of
their age, the Jagans would not have been deeply involved in the
flood relief operations at a physical, personal level. Desmond
Hoyte was not a politician and therefore, he probably would not
have acted like Bharrat Jagdeo. The criticism of the presidency
under Mr. Jagdeo has been poignant, consistent and unyielding.
Whether he changes for the better one will have to wait and see.
My feeling
is that if he contests the election and Mr. Corbin is his major
opponent, he will win the poll. I mean nothing, absolutely
nothing, personal against Mr. Corbin, but if he is true to
himself, and if the party he leads is true to itself, then he
would know that he cannot beat Jagdeo in the election.
This is
not the time to elaborate on the reasons; there are lots of time
left in these columns to do the analysis. It is a different
matter if a third force comes along. A Jagdeo presidency is
still assured but the PPP will be a minority in the parliament.
Whatever
the outcome, I think Jagdeo will be the President of Guyana.
Will he change for the better? There have been three episodes in
the Jagdeo presidency that indicated the potential for greater
things, two of which have evaporated. This is not the forum to
develop a thesis about those two failures. One is the decision
to allocate land to the Water Street vendors. It was a generous
move in the political arena where race and unyielding politics
play out in a zero sum game.
It was a
master stroke that Jagdeo failed to build on, thus the political
capital he could have got from it has dissipated. The second one
was his decision not to pursue legal action against the
management in the Globe Trust affair.
Under the
law, there was sufficient evidence for an inquiry. Even though
charges would have incensed the opposition, the Globe Trust
fiasco played right into the hands of Jagdeo. His soft approach
led to the survival of the bank for which Jagdeo again failed to
achieve political momentum.
The third
episode is his personal and official performance during the
natural disaster. Not withstanding the partisan coverage by the
media and accusations of selected help to particular villages,
Bharrat Jagdeo came good, looked good, and did good during the
floods.
It is to
date the best song he has sung. It is the only number one hit he
has chalked up on the charts. Could he go on to get other chart
toppers? One doesn't know why Jagdeo behaves the way he does
sometimes and therefore allows unnecessary dents to his
political credibility. Is it bad advisors? Is it ubiquitous
party pressure? Is it the inadequacies of youth?
Here is a
young president that turned the stately lawns of his official
residence into a flood relief operation. Here is a president
that was in the besieged villages from the time the floods hit
them. Here was a president in the murky, uncertain waters that
were taking lives.
On one
occasion, he didn't even wear a pair of long boots after at
least more than a dozen victims had been claimed by the stagnant
waters including a prominent personality, culturalist and
Kaieteur News journalist, Joseph Thomas.
Even the
most cynical anti-Jagdeo detractor could not find material to
fault Jagdeo's personal, physical endeavours during the great
floods of 2005. Of course, as I wrote above, the PPP and the
government did use the disaster for political publicity and that
was highly unacceptable.
So will
Jagdeo let this moment evaporate like the other two? For a man
who is a workaholic and someone who gets the blame for
governmental sins, it is a mystery why Jagdeo deliberately fails
to demand similar performance from his governmental army of
power-holders.
Is it
because these subordinates are working with the PPP and he is
the president of a PPP government? Is Jagdeo so unintellectual?
I doubt it. I once wrote a confidential research paper on the
failure of PPP personnel and PPP policies at UG and submitted it
to the President. I gave Robert Persaud a copy. I showed Jageo
where choices the PPP makes in putting certain PPP personnel in
certain vital sectors of Guyana have backfired and the PPP has
not looked good.
Nothing
happened. The University was without an oversight hand of a
Pro-Chancellor for 18 months, and things fell apart. Things are
falling apart in other places. Yet the workaholic Jagdeo does
nothing. Part of the reason is that Jagdeo shies away from
listening to criticism once it comes from non-PPP persons.
I once met
Roger Luncheon early one morning on the seawall in 1996. He had
two little children with him. We chatted and the topic of
practical politics came up. My point was that a ruling party
needs to have an external environment whose freshness and
distance of mind it can tap into.
Luncheon
agreed and told me whenever he wants crucial advice he would
also look outside of the party. He didn't explain to me what
“outside” meant, and I should have asked.
